Editor’s note: Follow this article for the most recent updates about the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
After months of build-up and uncertainty, it appears that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has come to the brink of war as reports are coming in that Russian troops have passed the Ukrainian border.
Russia, who has had over 100,000 troops stationed at the Ukrainian border for over a month, has largely been ambiguous in its messaging on whether the nation would invade, occasionally referring to the notion as ‘hysteria’ while also performing military exercises mere meters from the border for months on end. In response, western nations have imposed numerous warnings, sanctions and penalties.
Even more sanctions and penalties were introduced this week after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into two Ukrainian regions held by separatists, leaving a recent hastily-planned summit between Putin and President Joe Biden in the air and pushing Canada, Australia, Japan and the U.S. to make public denouncements of the country’s actions. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said, “Australians always stand up to bullies, and we will be standing up to Russia.” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Russia’s actions are “a threat to the security and stability of the region and the international rules-based order.”
In the aftermath of the hectic past 48 hours, The New York Times said that “In less than a day, nations have halted a key natural gas pipeline for Russia, limited its access to global financing and hampered the country’s elite.”
Miguel Rivera, criminal justice and political science professor at John Brown University, believes that this move is in pursuit of returning to the so-called glory days. “Putin has never recovered from the losses the old Soviet Union experienced after its collapse. He wants to turn the page of history back 30 years and reconstitute the old Soviet satellite countries,” he said. “Ukraine has a very special place in the heart of the old Soviet Republic. It was the crown jewel.”
At the center of some of this tension is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a military alliance consisting of 30 countries, including the U.S., the U.K., France and Canada. In the past, Russia has named a term of peace with Ukraine being that they do not join NATO.
News outlet Vox reports that, “Though Russia hasn’t yet staged the large-scale land invasion that the Biden administration has been publicly warning about for several days, a dizzying series of developments over the weekend showed how the window for a diplomatic outcome has narrowed. After days of fabricated claims of Ukrainian aggression, on Monday Putin delivered a combative, hour-long speech on Ukraine, which essentially denied Ukrainian statehood and portrayed NATO as a direct threat to Russia.”
“NATO, the European Union, the UK and the United States are not going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine,” Rivera said. “But they must protect the NATO members that are along Ukraine’s borders. Being in such close quarters to each other, especially if Russia takes Ukraine outright, is very dangerous.”
“President Biden is trying to give enough space for Putin to back down, while responding meaningfully to what has transpired so far. It is a very delicate balance – all while trying to keep France and Germany in lock step with U.S. policy.” Rivera continued. “No one knows what Putin’s end game is. Is it just the Dunbas region or is it more? The world stands holding its breath waiting to see which it is.”
Photo courtesy of Daria Volkova at Unsplash