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The Political Crisis in Guatemala After National Presidential Elections

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Recent events in Guatemala have thrust the country into a political maelstrom that has sent citizens to protest on the streets and question the foundations of the country’s democracy.

Following the first round of presidential elections on June 25, in which presidential candidates Sandra Torres, who belongs to Partido Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (National Unity of Hope Party), and Bernardo Arévalo, member of Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement Party) came in first and second place respectively.

Arévalo’s high performance during this round was an important trigger for the crisis for two main reasons: on one hand, Arévalo, being a progressive candidate, led a campaign that mainly focused on questioning the country’s elite and transmitting an anti-corruption message. On the other hand, in the run-up to the elections, Arévalo had received only 5% in polls of citizens’ voting intentions. Upon learning the results of this first round of elections, various conservative forces alleged irregularities within the election results. They demanded a recount of the votes in suspicion of alleged “electoral fraud.”

On July 12, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) confirmed the authenticity of the results and allowed both candidates to advance to the second round. However, on that same day, the Public Ministry, led by Attorney General Consuelo Porras, requested the suspension of the Movimiento Semilla party. Arévalo responded by filing a writ of amparo (“writ of protection”) before the Constitutional Court.

Porras has been a controversial figure in the Guatemalan political scene throughout her years of work. In 2021, she was sanctioned by the United States government for undermining efforts to carry out anti-corruption investigations in Guatemala.

After Arévalo’s victory in the second round of elections conducted on Aug. 20, Porras began to lead, along with the head of the Special Prosecutor’s Office against impunity (FECI) Rafael Curruchiche, investigations into the Movimiento Semilla party and the integrity of its victory.

As a result of these investigations, on Sept. 30, the prosecutor’s office carried out a raid at the TSE, during which police confiscated the electoral records. This incident served as the detonator of the nationwide protests since Oct. 2. These protests involved participation from indigenous groups, students and citizens, with the primary goal being to demand the resignation of the Attorney General. Consequently, these protests have led to road blockades and the temporary closure of various businesses.

“The protests have been mostly peaceful in nature,” contributed Guatemalan citizen Marco Gonzalez, sibling of a student from John Brown University. “Though there have been instances where external actors have tried to escalate the situations as a means of gaining a negative media portrayal of the protests.”

JBU students from Guatemala have commented on the experiences of their relatives during the crisis.

Sophomore Andrea Dávila mentioned the changes in everyday life for Guatemalan citizens during the peak of the protests. “There was a point where it felt like the country had returned to the times of the pandemic. Streets and stores were closed, food in supermarkets was limited, and people couldn’t attend their jobs.”  

Freshman Marilyn Gonzalez highlighted similar aspects, emphasizing the complications that the crisis has brought to the work of citizens. “My dad, for example, works in public transportation, a service he could no longer offer due to the blockades on the streets.”

She also underscored the participation of a significant percentage of the population in the protests.

“When the country had previously held similar protests, the body of the protesters was mainly made up of the working class and students from the University of San Carlos de Guatemala (USAC) [the country’s public university]. Now, you can see students from both public and private institutions in the streets, with people from all sectors of the population joining in.”

Alan López, a friend of Gonzalez currently experiencing the protests firsthand, similarly noted the sense of unity the protests have brought to the Guatemalan population.

“The protests have been absolute symbols of the best aspects of citizenship. Guatemala is a country that has been deeply traumatized for centuries. This trauma exists in many communities, left with voids that have remained practically irreparable. And despite all this, in the protests, we found an enormous sense of community, with people dancing everywhere, peacefully demonstrating their rights and supporting each other as citizens to achieve a common good: that justice can be done.”

Gonzalez closed with this remark regarding the future of Guatemala past the current crisis: “Though protests are starting to quiet down and things are beginning to return to ‘normal,’ I don’t think the situation will be truly resolved until Arévalo is appointed president this coming January, something that may be hard to achieve considering the state of corruption the government currently finds itself.”

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